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It’s gloomy out there

November 13th, 2008 by Ram Muthiah

Just when you think we are out of the woods, something else comes up. Today started with lot of bad news. Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) forecast that economic output would shrink 1.4 percent this quarter for the developed countries and keep contracting until the middle of next year. OECD’s report can be found here. Economic activity is expected to fall by 0.9 percent in the US next year, by 0.5 percent in the Euro area and by 0.1 percent in Japan as OECD countries enter a protracted slowdown, according to latest projections.

The number of newly laid-off individuals seeking unemployment benefits has jumped to a level not seen since just after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, as companies cut more jobs. The Labor Department reported that jobless claims last week increased by 32,000 to a seasonally adjusted 516,000. It’s much higher than what analysts expected. So, the stock market is falling again today.

Last week, Cisco systems warned about declining orders. Today, Intel warned about the same and slashed more than $1 billion from its sales forecast and dialed its profit expectations way back. Intel’s profit is being hurt badly. The company’s closely watched gross profit margin will now come in around 55 % of revenue versus the previous guidance of 59 %. If this is not enough to discourage the investors, Walmart also trimmed its earning outlook because of global economic crisis.

Another gloomy data today showed that foreclosure rate is up 25 % year over a year. We wrote about real estate slowdown few days ago. Today’s data reinforces our point of view. It’s going to get uglier before the situation can turn around.


Few hours ago, George Soros, Chairman of Soros Fund Management, said “a deep recession is now inevitable and the possibility of a depression cannot be ruled out.” Ok, there you have it. Just watch your expenses and increase your savings.

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5 Responses to “It’s gloomy out there”

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  3. [...] has been more than two months since I wrote “It’s gloomy out there“. It’s getting gloomier. Every passing week brings more bad news. Big-name companies, [...]

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