You’ve probably heard it at some point in the last few days, the supposed Super Bowl Indicator which can predict how stocks will move in the next 12 months. The news anchors all around the world love to play this one up to try to hype up the game and the stock market, but it is clearly all superficial and has no real significance.

What exactly is the Super Bowl Indicator? The Super Bowl Indicator is entirely based on the belief that a Super Bowl win from a team in the old AFL Conference, now the AFC Division, will bring a decline in the stock market over the next 12 months. On the other hand a win from the NFC Division will bring a bull market over the next 12 months.

How has the Super Bowl Indicator performed? Well it has been right about 80% of the time which is quite stunning really. How did it do in 2008? Quite frankly, an investor who bet the farm on the fact that the Super Bowl Indicator would come true would now have virtually nothing left. Despite the fact that the New York Giants won the Super Bowl in 2008 the stock market had an awful year and millions of people lost their life savings in the stock market.

While the 80% success rate sounds nice, it is nothing but a pure coincidence. There is absolutely no way that anyone with any sense should be investing their money based on the outcome of the Super Bowl. I believe Floyd Norris of the New York Times said it best when he wrote that anyone who was crazy enough to believe a football game can forecast the stock market needs to hire a money manager or a psychiatrist, or perhaps both. Next time someone brings up the Super Bowl Indicator pay absolutely no attention to it and get back to work doing your due diligence on your investments.