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Beige book shows signs of slight stabilization

April 15th, 2009 by Aaron Smith

Today the Federal Reserve released the all-important Beige Book report, which is a gathering of anecdotal information on up to date economic conditions from around the country. The Beige Book is broken down into twelve districts across the United States, those districts then report to the Federal Reserve their findings and they are compiled into one major report. What did today’s Beige Book release show? The report showed a mix bag, but it did show that five of the twelve districts found a noted moderation in the pace of economic decline. Several others said that economic conditions were still extremely poor, but were beginning to show minor signs of stabilizing.

Some of the more encouraging signs were in the housing/construction and the manufacturing sector, two sectors that have been hit extremely hard. The Beige Book report showed that in several areas both of these sectors were beginning to level off, which is a huge improvement from the dramatic fall they have been taking month after month in the previous few reports. Buyer traffic was reported to have picked up lately in some districts, which might be a sign that the lower mortgage rates are encouraging some to purchase a home. What was the biggest laggard in this report? The labor market was the single biggest laggard, as all the districts reported very poor labor markets and no sign of a turnaround in hiring tendencies.

Does this report which shows slight signs of stabilization in a few select areas mean the economy is cleared for lift off? It certainly does not. In fact, the labor market woes should be very concerning to all, and without a pickup in the labor market any kind of attempt by the economy to gain significant footing will be short lived. The signs of stabilization are not as much an all clear as they are a hint at the possibility of a light at the end of the tunnel. The key word in that last sentence is possibility. The jury is still out on the future of the economy, and this report doesn’t change that fact.

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