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Archive for April, 2009

How to prevent future recessions in U.S. — Break up the banks

Tuesday, April 21st, 2009

Simon Johnson is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute and a professor at MIT’s Sloan School of Management. He said that breaking up “too big to fail” banks, using anti-trust laws, is the way to go. Although this idea may rattle some people, I think this is a reasonable solution to prevent the re-occurrence of current mess. According to Mr. Johnson, “too big to fail is too big to exist”. Good catchy phrase! See his video interview in Tech Ticker to get more on his views.

Is now a good time to search for a loan?

Monday, April 20th, 2009

The question has been asked now for months and months, is now a good time to look for a loan? In the past few months interest rates have become more attractive and thus the cost of obtaining a loan has gone down drastically. Does this mean you should be looking to buy something and getting a loan while you can?

First of all it is important to note that now is most certainly a terrific time to do things such as refinance your mortgage if you can save some money by doing so. Now is also a good time to look for a loan to make a major purchase if you are financially able to make the payments necessary. With interest rates hovering new the lowest levels in 50 years or so, it definitely wouldn’t be wise to sit around waiting to get a better rate on loans. Now may well be the best rate you will see in quite some time.

On the other hand if you aren’t in a financially secure position you should not feel as if you need to find a reason to go searching for a loan to make a major purchase. Major purchases should be made either by necessity or because you are taking a chance on something like a small business and you have the ability to take a loss on the money you are investing.

Now is a great time to look for things like the best mortgage rates, best car loan rates, and the best student loan rates; but only if you or your family has a secure financial position. The worst mistake you can make is hastily purchasing something only to drive yourself into debt and need debt consolidation services. The bottom line is, now is certainly a good time to search for a loan or a great interest rate, but make sure you aren’t over extending your finances to do so!

Earnings Results of the Banks

Monday, April 20th, 2009

Last week Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Citigroup announced earnings that beat the street’s expectations. All of them except JP Morgan traded down even after delivering better news. Bank of America and Wells Fargo are going to report this week.

Bank America reports today before market. Every investor out there is going to watch what they say about TARP, the stress test and their failed acquisitions. Wells Fargo will announce their earnings on Wednesday before market. Wells Fargo has already guided higher so every one is going to focus on Bank of America. Wall Street is expecting a profit of 4 to 5 cents a share from Bank of America compared to 23 cents a year ago.

Capital One is going to report on Tuesday. Capital One serves the high credit risk customers. We have to see whether their consumer credit quality is still declining. If Capital One gives us some positive surprise, the market will rally.

Apart from the banks, we have other major companies that report earnings this week. Apple Inc is going to report Wednesday after market. Investors have questions about whether iPhone sales are doing ok, effect of competition from Blackberry, Mac Sales, etc., Apple’s stock rallied in the past two weeks. We will know whether this rally is sustainable on Wednesday.

UPS is going to report on Thursday before market. It will give us the state of the shipping business. It will also give us the clue about e-commerce trends.

Once upon a time, everyone was eagerly waiting for earnings results from Yahoo. I don’t think anyone cares about them now. Yahoo reports tomorrow. EBay reports on Wednesday. Microsoft reports on Thursday. These results will give us clues about technology sector.

We have to watch for reports from Ford, which reports on Friday before market, to see the signs of recovery in Detroit. In the oil and energy sectors, Schlumberger reports on Friday before market, Conoco Phillips and Occidental report on Thursday before market. Halliburton reports today before market. These results will give us indications about the health of overall economy.

Keep your fingers crossed before you hit the buy button in your online brokerage account!

Related Link: Earnings Season

Peer to Peer Lending for College Students

Friday, April 17th, 2009

Anyone who has attended college knows that it is an expensive business. Every year several students graduate with debts that amount to thousands of dollars. The credit crunch has made it even more difficult to bag scholarships or education loans. This situation has given rise to a new concept called peer to peer lending.

Cheap loan for college studentsBrothers Michael and Matthew Kopko have started GradeFund that is aimed at helping students pay their way through school and college. No, it does not offer scholarships or loans. There are no killer interest rates or pay back deadlines. The only thing you have to do is score good grades.

The concept behind GradeFund is simple. Students can use the gradefund.com website to create a profile like that on Facebook. They can then use templates to send out invitation to their friends and family, asking them to sponsor some money in exchange for good grades. For instance, you can ask you family to sponsor say $10 for an A grade in Biology. Several companies and philanthropists have also come forward to sponsor students who care capable of scoring good grades.

Sponsors do not have to come up with hefty amounts. They can choose to pay as little as $5 for a specific grade. For instance, your sponsor can offer to pay $5 if you get a B+. Sponsors can also choose to donate by subject area. For example, a sponsor can offer to donate money to students who ace certain subjects like chemistry or zoology.  As a matter of fact, GradeFund’s first corporate sponsor is ZooToo.com. They pledged $15 for 100 students who excel in veterinary medicine.

The GradeFund website permits students to upload their transcripts. You will have to enter your classes and corresponding grades. The company then verifies the transcripts and collects money from sponsors. Once you have accumulated $100 in donations, GradeFund will send you a check. You can withdraw amounts less than $100 for a $5 fee. GradeFund also has a facility wherein they send the money directly to your school if your sponsors permit it.

By signing up for GradeFund you also increase your chances of being found and hired by companies on account of your good performance and excellent academic record.

It takes just a few simple steps to get a donation, however small it may be to help pay your college expenses. Simply create an account at GradeFund, invite sponsors, upload your marks transcript and receive funds.

If you are not a student, you can encourage students to excel academically by offering to sponsor them in GradeFund. Every time you sponsor an A grade student through GradeFund, it will donate five cents to the One Laptop per Child mission. That way, you can help educate children all across the world.

As of now, GradeFund has over 15,000 users. The company and the concept behind it have been appreciated by students and sponsors alike. After all, it is a great way to reward students for academic excellence and also to find good students to perform for companies and organizations.

Are JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo aberrations or the rule?

Thursday, April 16th, 2009

Today JP Morgan Chase reported earnings that were better than Wall Street analysts had expected. In the last week Wells Fargo projected record profits and stated that the mortgage market seemed to be turning around as they were seeing some notable increases in their mortgage business.

JP Morgan Chase saw its overall profit decline, but it was still much better than most were expecting. The main reason the company was able to beat expectations so soundly was the securities business. The investment banking business at JP Morgan Chase had its best quarter ever. CEO Jamie Dimon said he doesn’t believe the tremendous gains in the investment banking are sustainable and that it would be unreasonable to expect continued results like that from that particular business. JP Morgan Chase was slightly less open about the direction they believe the industry and specifically the mortgage sector is heading. It should be noted though that Wells Fargo has a bigger mortgage business on the whole, so they would likely have more to say about that business when they report earnings on April 22.

The question now becomes, are these two companies aberrations or are they going to be commonplace when it comes to earnings from financial companies? I tend to think that these companies are more of an aberration than a rule. Both of these companies have proven to be ahead of the pack in recent quarters when it comes to writing down their losses and being innovative about getting back on track quicker than the industry as a whole. It is quite likely that these two are taking business away from their competitors, which could be part of the reason they are beating expectations.

The bottom line is these two earnings reports have been positive for the overall market and the economy, but it is far too early to think that banks and the rest of the financials are going to be just fine. These two companies may well be ahead of the rest of the pack, but only time will tell.

Beige book shows signs of slight stabilization

Wednesday, April 15th, 2009

Today the Federal Reserve released the all-important Beige Book report, which is a gathering of anecdotal information on up to date economic conditions from around the country. The Beige Book is broken down into twelve districts across the United States, those districts then report to the Federal Reserve their findings and they are compiled into one major report. What did today’s Beige Book release show? The report showed a mix bag, but it did show that five of the twelve districts found a noted moderation in the pace of economic decline. Several others said that economic conditions were still extremely poor, but were beginning to show minor signs of stabilizing.

Some of the more encouraging signs were in the housing/construction and the manufacturing sector, two sectors that have been hit extremely hard. The Beige Book report showed that in several areas both of these sectors were beginning to level off, which is a huge improvement from the dramatic fall they have been taking month after month in the previous few reports. Buyer traffic was reported to have picked up lately in some districts, which might be a sign that the lower mortgage rates are encouraging some to purchase a home. What was the biggest laggard in this report? The labor market was the single biggest laggard, as all the districts reported very poor labor markets and no sign of a turnaround in hiring tendencies.

Does this report which shows slight signs of stabilization in a few select areas mean the economy is cleared for lift off? It certainly does not. In fact, the labor market woes should be very concerning to all, and without a pickup in the labor market any kind of attempt by the economy to gain significant footing will be short lived. The signs of stabilization are not as much an all clear as they are a hint at the possibility of a light at the end of the tunnel. The key word in that last sentence is possibility. The jury is still out on the future of the economy, and this report doesn’t change that fact.

What to do if you are laid off?

Wednesday, April 15th, 2009

With the recession having raised its ugly head, just about everyone seems to be getting laid off. The survivors are left staring at empty cubicles and wondering if they will be the next victim.

What can you do to find a new job in these tough times, if you are laid off? Here are a few pointers:

  • Leave your job on good terms with your employer. Don’t burn bridges by giving in to your emotions when you have been fired. Keep a cheerful attitude and speak to all your colleagues before you pack up and leave. Exchange contact information and promise to keep in touch.
  • Spruce up your CV and cover letter. Prospective employers derive their first impression of you from these documents so, make sure they are updated.
  • Post your resume in all major job portals and make your resume “searchable”. If you are VP level candidate, it’s not advisable to post your resume in job portals. It might work against you. You need to contact executive recruiters and work with them to find your next job.
  • Some people are tempted to go on a vacation as soon as they are laid off. They feel that they have earned it and the change of scenario will help settle the turmoil in their minds. It is well and fine to take a week end off and go camping or take a trip to the beach but a long vacation can make you lazy and ultimately, you will take a lot longer to find a job.
  • Make job hunting a job. Spend the time that you would be working, say 8 hours per day, in searching for a new job. You can use the time to update your resume and send it to people you know, join networking sites and establish new contacts, check out jobs posted in different web sites and so on.
  • You can use the web to highlight your skills. For instance, you can create your own website and post high quality information on the subject of your choice. People who share your interests are bound to visit your web site. Impress them with your knowledge.
  • Let everyone know that you have been laid off and are looking for a new job. Tell it to your friends, relatives and even people you have just met. You never know who might be able to help. A casual acquaintance at a dinner party might end up being your new boss.
  • Attend meetings and seminars in your area. You will keep in touch with the developments in your field. You will also get to meet new people who might be able to help you by word of mouth. Several vacancies are never posted online or in newspapers. Instead, they get filled by mere word of mouth.
  • Hone your networking skills. Get in touch with old friends and acquaintances. Take an initiative to meet new people. Stock up on references. Get references from your old boss and colleagues. This will prove valuable in your search for a new job.
  • If it’s taking longer to find a permanent job, try taking up some freelance work. You can find freelance jobs in fields like data entry, software programming and writing. Of course, it may not pay as much as a full time job but every dollar earned will be of use for your budget. You can even do some consulting work. If you get hired as a contract employee for sometime, don’t hesitate to take up the offer. You may be able to garner valuable experience that way.
  • Cut unnecessary expenses. Now that you are without a job, you can manage without partying or going for movies or eating out often. Try to scrimp and save every dime you can.
  • Try to learn new skills. You can sign up for crash courses or short term tutorial to help brush up your skills and increase your chances of landing a good job.
  • Practice interview skills. You can do this by attending every interview that comes your way, even if you are sure that you won’t take up the job.
  • Take time to do volunteer work. You can use your skills in your field of interest to help out government and non profit organizations. For instance, if you are a nurse, you can spend some time doing volunteer work at a nearby home for the aged. This experience will also be useful for your resume.
  • Most important, never lose hope. It may take some time but you are sure to land a good job in due time.

Personal savings and its importance in the future

Tuesday, April 14th, 2009

In the most recent months during the economic recession Americans have begun to save their money once again. For many years the personal savings rate was on the decline, and it actually fell into the negative territory for a short period in 2005 and 2006. How is the personal savings rate calculated? It is calculated by subtracting taxes and spending from personal income. During the period of 1959 to 1984 Americans never had a personal savings rate below 7.2%, but since that time it has never been back to 7.2%. The majority of the last ten years the rate has hovered around 2% or so.

While the American government, as well as other governments around the world are certainly hoping that you will go out and spend you money now, there is no doubt that it is wise to build up your savings. The sad thing is that it shouldn’t take a recession the magnitude of the one we are currently experiencing to get people to understand that they need to keep their spending under control.

One of the most important things that any individual throughout the world can do is to remember the lessons we are learning today and continue to apply them in the future. Quite frankly when consumers continue to spend above their means there is bound to be a bad ending for the global economy. Historically it has been during periods of booming economic growth that individuals decide to step out and spend more than they really should be, but I certainly hope that this recession teaches the lesson that saving money isn’t simply something to do during a recession. Saving your money is something that needs to be done constantly and while it can be a very tough thing to do, those who do it will end up ahead in the long run.

Can we trust earnings reports now?

Monday, April 13th, 2009

It’s the most important time of the quarter for Wall Street as earnings season begins in earnest this week. More people than normal will be following corporate earnings reports this quarter because of the magnifying glass that is being put on the global economy. Every single number that is released will be analyzed more critically than ever, and that really is the way it should be. Another part of this earnings season that will be so important is the commentary about the future. It isn’t just the analysts that want to know, the entire country wants to know, are things getting any better?

The importance of earnings season has never been greater, but I think of even greater importance is the fact that we get earnings reports we can actually trust. In the past quarters there has been a lot of accounting maneuvers by firms that make earnings look much better than they truly are, which misleads investors and is just plain wrong. Because the financial firms have been those who have been hit the hardest by the credit crisis, and many have been guilty of artificially propping up earnings, those financials that report their earnings will be watched the most closely of all. Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, and General Electric are all going to be reporting earnings this week, and those reports will be crucial to the overall market direction.

It is a given that the earnings reports will be ugly, because the economy as a whole has been in a major mess. We can take the bad news, but we just need the companies to be completely level with us. The thing that I sincerely hope that we can begin to do once again, is trust that corporations are reporting to us the actual financial standing of their businesses and not simply a facade.

Earnings Season – This week will show us the real picture

Monday, April 13th, 2009

No more speculation about what Goldman Sachs would earn. No more arguments about whether Citibank is going to really turnaround. We will get the Q1 results of major companies this week. The results will tell us whether the banks are really profitable and the real status of U.S. economy.

  • Goldman Sachs (GS) will report the earnings tomorrow, April 14th, before market
  • JP Morgan Chase (JPM) will report on April 16th, before market
  • Citigroup (C) will report on April 17th, before market
  • General Electric (GE) will report on April 17th, before market
  • Intel Corp (INTC) will report tomorrow, April 14th, after market
  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) will report tomorrow, April 14th, before market

The earnings will tell us the true story. If all the above companies report good earnings for Q1, the market is going to rally. Be ready for the wild ride,  it can go in either direction!

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