The stock market has certainly been quite strong of late, with all three of major indices showing a gain of more than 25% from their lows hit in early March. The long-term trend is obviously not as bright, with the broad S&P 500 still down a little more than 22% from a year ago.

Over the last few weeks there has been more talk of an economic recovery and the possibility of the brand new bull market getting underway. Famous market strategist Abby Joseph Cohen of Goldman Sachs said at the end of last week that she thought a new bull market is already going on and the market is poised to continue higher. While most stock market strategists have become much more bullish in recent weeks, there are still plenty of bears out there with lots of ammunition on why the market will go much lower from here. Marc Faber, considered a pretty consistent bear, has recently published a report speaking of the strong possibility for hyperinflation because of the moves the Federal Reserve has made over the last few months.

It all boils down to the question of whether the economic recovery that some see beginning is real or not. If the economy recovers, even if it does so slowly, you probably don’t want to be overly bearish. On the other hand if the economy is still in shambles six months from now the bulls will definitely feel a lot of pain between now and then.

The jury is still out on whether a new bull market is starting or whether this is a prolonged bear market rally. Investors would be wise to tread carefully in this environment until the direction of the overall economy becomes more clear. While there are plenty of opinions out there, the truth is no one can know the next move the market makes at this point.