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Seasonal Bullish Pattern Begins in November

November 9th, 2009 by Aaron Smith

There is a saying on Wall Street that says “sell in May and go away.” Obviously that didn’t hold true this year, and historical patterns don’t always hold true, but they are definitely things that you should be aware of and consider when making your investment decisions.

Now that we are in the month of November the stock market has entered what is generally its best three and six month periods of the year. The three month period from November through January is the single best three month period historically for the market, and the November through April time period is the season trade that many traders point to as being very successful. The single best month of the year for stocks based on past returns is the month of January. New Year and its optimism is definitely a part of the positive action in stocks during this time period. Over the past 49 years the S%P 500 has gained 1.5% on average in January.

Why is this time period so strong? Typically as we head into the holiday season investors tend to be a little more upbeat about the current state of the market and the economy. For example, the week before Thanksgiving has produced a positive week for the stock market in each of the last 15 years. Investors and traders are simply in a better mood this time of year and it truly does make a difference. The seasonal trade of November through April has shown to be a very solid one over time. Looking back at the last 20 years the Dow has averaged a seasonal gain of 6.86% from November-April and only a gain of 0.44% from May-October.

Remember, November starts the beginning of what is typically a healthy bullish period for the stock market, but historical averages don’t always stand true. Be wise with your money and your investments!

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