The most common bear market myth
Monday, March 23rd, 2009Today is a good day to point out the single biggest myth of a bear market; the myth that in a bear market stocks there will be not be significant rallies. Today the Dow gained about 500 points, and the S&P 500 gained more than 7% on the day. Clearly today was a day where the gains were extremely broad based and the market was full in buying mode. Does this mean that today’s signals the end of the bear market, or the beginning of a bull market? It most certainly does not.
If you look back at past bear markets, including the bear market that occurred in 2002 in the United States stock market, you will find that some of the largest point and percentage gains on a single day basis for both the Dow and the NASDAQ were during the midst of a bear market. A bear market rally is generally extremely short-lived, but it can be very powerful and leave investors feeling great about themselves for a short period of time.
The simple fact of the matter is that stocks never go in a straight line up or down, and those who try to read too much into the short-term momentum of the market are bound to be burned quite often. A bear market is prime territory for stocks to jump in a single day because those who are short sellers often cover and take their profit and the gains are exaggerated quite a bit because of this occurrence.
The next time you are tempted to think that a bear market cannot have a major rally remember that bear market rallies are extremely common, they are just different than a bull market rally, which is far more sustainable. Only time will tell if the current rally is a bear market rally or the beginning of a bear market bottom, but we’ve seen this kind of action before and I caution investors against chasing the market in either direction.