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Posts Tagged ‘bls job data’

Unemployment rate reaches 25 year high

Friday, April 3rd, 2009

The Department of Labor reported this morning that 663,000 Americans lost their job in the month of March. The unemployment rate jumped to 8.5%, the highest it has been in over 25 years. Those hoping for some good news from the Labor Department had to be disappointed in the report, which offered more of the same, bad news on the labor front.

Manufacturing and construction job losses were once again the worst of all, but there were really no bright spots outside of tiny ones in health care and education. Even the health care and education sectors are barely growing now, and a few months ago they were growing quite nicely. It simply is a broad based decline in the job market that is leaving no sector untouched.

One of the things that many analysts have been watching closely is the number of hours worked per week. Once again this month the average work week fell to 33.2 hours, which is the lowest figure the Bureau of Labor Statistics has ever measured since it began keeping track in 1964. Why is that such an important number? It is important because it shows that the overall trend is still more towards cutting employee hours back to part-time from full-time, and not vice-versa like you would hope to see.

If there is any bit of positive data from this report it is that job losses don’t appear to be falling off a cliff anymore. The number of jobs lost has now been quite steady for the past couple months, which could hopefully show that we are finding a bottom for the labor market, but only time will tell.

The truth of the matter is, there aren’t many positive ways to spin today’s number, but that was pretty much the expectations. Sooner or later the labor market will need to begin turning around if the American economy is going to come back in any meaningful way.

The economic stimulus won’t necessarily cure the stock market

Friday, February 6th, 2009

An economic stimulus plan, while it may be necessary, doesn’t mean that we can just sound the all clear in the stock market. I don’t particularly enjoy being a person who is so cautionary when the stock market seems so excited, after all I am cheering for the stock market to do well and I hope a bull market continues soon.

Why do I post about this today? I say this because today the S&P 500 rose by about 3% on investor optimism that the economic stimulus plan would be passed very soon. In fact, for the week the NASDAQ gained about 7%, which is quite startling given the amount of bad economic news there has been. Granted, the stock market’s performance over the last year has built in a lot of bad economic news, and I don’t necessarily think there is a huge downside from this point, but it simply doesn’t make sense for stocks to stage massive rallies at this point.

This morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nearly 600,000 Americans lost their job in the month of January alone. This was the single biggest monthly loss of jobs since 1974. The unemployment rate jumped to 7.6%, and it is sure to rise more in the coming months. Despite this data, the stock market was off to the races as if nothing was wrong.

There have been many arguments regarding what is the right type of economic stimulus for our economy at this point. Democrats and Barack Obama lean more toward creating jobs by spending money on infrastructure building, while Republicans want more tax breaks for small businesses. Since the Democrats have the majority in congress and the Presidency the final economic stimulus bill will certainly be more to their liking, but regardless of who’s version gets passed this will take a long time to work through. Just a note of caution to all investors, remember that we are in a completely different economy than any of us have ever seen, and a cure will take quite some time.

2.6 million jobs lost in 2008, worst year since 1945

Friday, January 9th, 2009

This morning the Labor Department reported the news that was widely expected, but still so very grim, the United States economy finished 2008 with a loss of 2.6 million jobs. The 2.6 million jobs lost is the most since 1945. Even more stunning is the fact that the last four months of the year accounted for 1.9 million of those job losses. The monthly number for December was right in line with analysts expectations, showing a loss of 524,000. The unemployment rate rose more than most strategists were expecting to 7.2%. Manufacturing employment tanked by 149,000 in the month of December, led by many job losses in the automotive industry. Another statistic that speaks to just how bad the economy is, retailers slashed 66,000 jobs in December, a month that is typically their strongest month of the year.

A deeper look within the employment numbers shows that the top line numbers don’t even show just how bad things are. The so-called under-employment number, which includes workers who want a full-time position, but are only able to find part-time positions rose to 13.5% in the month of December, from 12.6% in November. Our economy has deteriorated to the point that many people have given up hope of finding a full-time job and are settling for a part-time position, or even multiple part-time positions to try to get by.

There is no way to spin these numbers in a positive way. Things are very bad on the job front and there is no sign of things getting better. There are so many negative things happening to consumers in our country right now, but none of them are as important as the threat of or the actual loss of a job. Until the job picture begins to turn itself around, we will continue to be in this downward spiral that seems to be completely out of control. Keep saving and prepare for the worst, while hoping for the best for our overall economy and your individual financial position!

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