All Eyes on the Employment Data- What should you look for?
Thursday, January 7th, 2010Today the stock market is doing exactly what I would expect, sitting back and waiting to see what comes out of the big employment number tomorrow morning. I think wise investors should do exactly what the market is telling you to do, wait and see exactly what the employment picture shows. This goes for tomorrow’s report, which will let us know about December, as well as the reports in the coming months that will show us the picture in early 2010. As I have stated to readers of this blog many times in the past, I simply do not believe in the notion of a “jobless recovery.” I truly believe that any real recovery must be accompanied by a strengthening job market so that the consumer can feel more confident about their current situation and future prospects.
What kinds of things should you look for in the employment data to see if the trends are starting to look better or not? Look at the beaten down sectors such as manufacturing and see if there are any signs of life. Also, take a look at things like average wages and see if they are beginning to pick up at all. Sometimes the top line number of 10% unemployment rate or whatever it may be gets a little too much recognition in my opinion, since that doesn’t account for those who have stopped looking for a position. The trends have gone in a solid direction with smaller job losses of late, but we will definitely need to see some sectors other than the government and healthcare adding jobs for the market to continue its recent climb.
The bottom line is every single jobs number will be vitally important to the market for the next few months. As an informed investor I strongly suggest you start parsing through the numbers and not just looking at the top line!