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Fourth Quarter GDP Revised Much Lower

Friday, February 27th, 2009

Today the Commerce Department brought some very negative news on the economy. The Commerce Department released a revised fourth quarter Gross Domestic Products number that shows a loss of a stunning 6.2%. Just a few weeks ago the initial estimate was for a loss of 3.8%, and the most shocking part of this revision is the sheer magnitude of the revision. Historically GDP figures aren’t revised by any more than .5% or 1% at the most, but this time it was completely different. The news gets even worse though, this wasn’t even the final reading for the GDP, that will come later on in March.

What caused the large revision downward in the number? Consumer spending dropped 4.3% in the fourth quarter, which is typically a strong quarter because of all the holiday shopping. Also pushing the number lower was a major adjustment lower in exports and inventory investments. To put things in perspective the 6.2% estimate that is currently being shown for the fourth quarter is the worst single quarter since 1982.

The scariest part of the whole thing is that the first quarter is looking much worse than the fourth quarter did. Companies are slashing jobs at a much quicker rate, consumers are slowing down their spending even quicker than they did in the fourth quarter, and the overall sentiment of the market and the economy as a whole has gotten much worse. In order to see a slowdown in the dramatic drops in the GDP of this economy we may need to see slowing of the harsh drop in the housing sector. As of yet, there have been no signs of any kind of improvement in the housing market that could aid the economy.

The truth is we are in a period of great unknowns. The uncertainty is terrible for the stock market and for every individual who wants to have that coveted job security. For the foreseeable future, uncertainty will reign and wise use of savings will be absolutely vital.

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