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Posts Tagged ‘unemployment rate’

August Job Data Encourages Market

Friday, September 3rd, 2010

This morning the August employment report was released and it has given a nice boost to the stock market today. The private sector job growth for the month was 67,000 jobs. Analysts had been expecting the private sector job growth to be only 20,000 jobs. The unemployment rate stayed edged up to 9.6% in August.

The past few weeks has seen all kinds of important economic information whipsaw the market in both directions. We have seen weekly jobless claims reach 500,000, which hurt the market badly. We have seen impressive manufacturing numbers, which helped the market in a big way. For the individual investor, it is certainly hard to tell what to make of the recent economic numbers.

What should you do in this kind of environment with uncertainty about the state of the economy? At this point it seems the economic recovery is still continuing, albeit at an extremely slow pace. As I have said many times before, the biggest key will always be the employment market. If employers start hiring on a larger scale, the growth for the overall economy will definitely show up.

Keep in mind that often times in a recovery from such a terrible recession like the one we saw in 2008 and 2009 it takes quite a while for the growth to get back into high gear. Why is this the case? Quite frankly, everyone is a little scared to invest their money. Personal investors are worried that the same market crash could occur that happened in late 2008. Institutions and money managers are waiting for more clear signs that the economy is strengthening. At the same time, corporations are also scared to put their cash to work. This is precisely why we see so many companies with huge amounts of cash on their balance sheet today.

I think for the next few weeks and months it would be wise to take a wait and see approach to the state of the economy and the stock market. Watch the weekly jobless claims number and the important economic data closely. If you need to be invested in the market in the short-term, it would be wise to consider high dividend yielding stocks because of their relative safety.

Fear Factor is Going Up Again

Friday, October 2nd, 2009

Chicago Board Options Exchange’s volatility index (VIX) jumped to its highest level yesterday since Sept. 3 as stocks slipped lower for the third day in a row. I love higher VIX, that’s when my option trades are more profitable. This may not be the appropriate statement given the current market condition! But, that’s the fact. I buy stocks and sell options when the VIX hits high. When everyone is panicked that’s when you should go for your favorite stocks and options. VIX is around 28.22, well above the recent trend.

Numbers from Institute for Supply Management (ISM) yesterday spooked many investors and caused huge drop in all indexes. ISM , a group of purchasing managers, reported that its index of manufacturing activity was at 52.6 in September, down from 52.9 a month earlier but still reflecting an expansion for the second consecutive month. Any reading above 50 indicates growth in manufacturing activity; below 50 is contraction. We are still in growth mode, not as much growth as you would expect, but still the manufacturing industry is picking up strength.

On the other side, today’s employment numbers are bad. This is going to be bad for many more months to come until businesses gain confidence. I am not going to turn negative on the market because of these numbers. I personally know how hard to hire right people at this time. Unemployment situation will turn around, not sure when. I am continuing to buy good stocks at better prices. More fear in the market is good for prudent investors.

Related Link: Fear Factor

Rising Unemployment Takes Its Toll on Older Managers

Thursday, July 16th, 2009

The current recession is deeper and already longer than any since World War II. This caused big trouble for managers in their 40s and early 50s. They tend to be more expensive than their younger counterparts; they may lack some of the high-tech savvy needed to succeed in a more efficient workplace; and they face a downsized job market that will stay that way much longer than usual.

According to Wharton finance and statistics professor Francis X. Diebold, co-director of the Wharton Financial Institutions Center, the current employment picture is closely aligned with the depth of the recession. “If the recession really did bottom out in February or March, and if we stay on track and start growing at a positive rate by the end of this year — which is by no means certain — it could still be 2013 before we see some significant employment optimism.”

Many companies laid off mid-to-senior level managers because they were expensive. It was particularly hard in IT industry. If you are one of those older managers that are struggling to find job, here are some helpful hints for you.

Go International: Many companies in emerging markets are looking for talented and well connected foreign nationals. Your first step will be to network with headhunters in your target market and check the job listings in top two job portals in your target country.

Go Teach: If you have passion to teach, getting a teaching job in schools/colleges will be an ideal option. If you have Ph.D, you will find the doors wide open for you in online universities; they need well qualified teaching professionals to teach their popular courses.

Go Consult: If the above choices don’t work out for you, become a consultant in the domain of your expertise.

Unemployment rate reaches 25 year high

Friday, April 3rd, 2009

The Department of Labor reported this morning that 663,000 Americans lost their job in the month of March. The unemployment rate jumped to 8.5%, the highest it has been in over 25 years. Those hoping for some good news from the Labor Department had to be disappointed in the report, which offered more of the same, bad news on the labor front.

Manufacturing and construction job losses were once again the worst of all, but there were really no bright spots outside of tiny ones in health care and education. Even the health care and education sectors are barely growing now, and a few months ago they were growing quite nicely. It simply is a broad based decline in the job market that is leaving no sector untouched.

One of the things that many analysts have been watching closely is the number of hours worked per week. Once again this month the average work week fell to 33.2 hours, which is the lowest figure the Bureau of Labor Statistics has ever measured since it began keeping track in 1964. Why is that such an important number? It is important because it shows that the overall trend is still more towards cutting employee hours back to part-time from full-time, and not vice-versa like you would hope to see.

If there is any bit of positive data from this report it is that job losses don’t appear to be falling off a cliff anymore. The number of jobs lost has now been quite steady for the past couple months, which could hopefully show that we are finding a bottom for the labor market, but only time will tell.

The truth of the matter is, there aren’t many positive ways to spin today’s number, but that was pretty much the expectations. Sooner or later the labor market will need to begin turning around if the American economy is going to come back in any meaningful way.

Unemployment Rate Goes Up Again

Thursday, March 26th, 2009

Few days ago I wrote that unemployment is still the same. It is not the same, it’s getting worse. For the 10th week in a row, the number of people receiving jobless benefits grew. It now stands at nearly 5.6 million, an indication that the labor market is still grim. New claims for unemployment benefits rose again as well, to a seasonally adjusted 652,000, up from 644,000 the week before. More on this story here.

If we don’t see turnaround in unemployment, the economy is not going to go anywhere but down. As we said before, if you have a job consider yourself lucky and do everything possible to keep the job. Unemployment situation gives us the warning that we should not get carried away with the recent rally in the stock market. We are not out of the woods yet.

Jobless Rate Jumps. L-shaped Recession Coming?

Friday, March 6th, 2009

Jobless rate jumped to 8.1%, highest since 1983. U.S. Employers slashed 651,000 jobs last month. Once upon a time (in late 1998), higher unemployment rate triggered rallies in the stock market. The theory was that higher unemployment rate would force the Fed to reduce interest rates. Now, the interest rate is almost zero. As with all other long standing theories, this one also has gone in the air.

By looking at all these developments, I won’t be surprised if Nouriel Roubini’s prediction comes true. Dr. Roubini, New York University Economist, thinks that there is a 1 in 3 chance that, if appropriate policies are not put in place, current ugly U-shaped recession may turn into a more virulent L-shaped near-depression. If I keep thinking about it, I may get the dream of “U”s and “L”s. Whatever comes our way, we will deal with it!

Related Link: Jobless rate bolts to 8.1%

Recession racks up more layoffs

Monday, January 26th, 2009

It has been more than two months since I wrote “It’s gloomy out there“. It’s getting gloomier. Every passing week brings more bad news. Big-name companies, that are generally thought as safe for employment, are also laying off big time.

Last week Microsoft announced termination of 5,000 employees, Intel announced the elimination of 6,000 jobs and United Airlines said it would get rid of 1,000 jobs. More than 40,000 employees received the pink slips today. Unemployment is hovering around 7%, it ‘s estimated to reach 10%.

In a survey by the National Association for Business Economics, 39% of companies plan to reduce payrolls over the next six months, while 17% plan to increase employment. Only the services sector continues to create jobs. Survey respondents continued to grow more pessimistic about the macroeconomic outlook.

Related Links: Job killing recession | Unemployment rate surged to 7.2% | Five legal ways to work from home

Record job losses in November, what does it mean to you?

Friday, December 5th, 2008

This morning’s non farm payrolls number for the month of November was expected to be bad, but almost no one expected it to be as bad as it actually was. How bad were the job losses in the month of November? A stunning 533,000 jobs were lost last month alone. Economists had been expecting losses of about 350,000 jobs during the month of November. The jobless rate jumped to 6.7% in November. Service-producing industries lost a record 370,000 jobs last month alone. As if last month’s data wasn’t bad enough by itself, the job losses for September and October were revised much lower, by a total of 199,000 jobs.

Many economists say that this is a sign of either a very deep recession coming, or possibly even a depression. This was the most jobs lost in a single month in the last 34 years, so there is clearly a significant amount of pain going around in this country. For the broader economy the message is clear, things are terrible and they are getting worse very fast.

What should you do in a period of record job losses and so much uncertainty about the overall economy? As a consumer you should take every step possible to get your groceries and goods at the cheapest price possible and save on all other costs such as transportation costs. While it is certainly hurtful to think of losing your job, with the economy losing so many jobs and companies being pinched and forced into more layoffs I think it is a good idea to have yourself a rainy day fund of some kind. By this I mean, set aside a little bit of money in case you are laid off from your current job, just so you have enough to make ends meet while trying to find any kind of income possible. Protecting yourself from the possibility of future pain is the name of the game right now. As hard as it may seem to save a little bit now in case things turn horribly bad for you and your family, it would be that much harder if you don’t plan ahead.